Forecast Discussion

Forecast valid from 20/07/2018 to 21/07/2018

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba


A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands with axis
extending from 05N-18N along 21W. Significant Saharan dry air
and dust intrusion into the wave environment along with strong
deep layer wind shear in the region have greatly reduced the
convection associated with this wave. Isolated showers are
confined to the region S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N
between 12W-23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 03N-16N along 37W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is moving
across an extensive Saharan Air Layer Outbreak with dry air and
dust hindering convection.

A low amplitude tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with
axis extending from 02N-11N along 57 W, moving W at 15 kt. No
convection is associated with this wave at this time.


Imagery from GOES-16 shows a thin layer of Saharan Dust moving
across the central and western portions of the basin. Expect the
wave to move over the western Caribbean today. Scattered moderate
convection is over the SW basin Sunday primarily due to the eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to continue over the central basin through the weekend.
Near gale force winds will be likely, however, along the coast
of Colombia this weekend.

Next update will be issued 21/07/2018 16:00UTC