Forecast Discussion



08/21/2019
Forecast valid from 21/08/2019 to 22/08/2019

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw

...TROPICAL WAVES EAST OF 70W...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 34W S of 19N,
moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate showers are seen from
05N-07N between 29-33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N57W to 12N59W and
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated light showers are seen within
90 nm of the wave axis from 15N-21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moisture from a tropical wave along with upper-level diffluence
are leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
over the Yucatan Channel from 19N-23N between 84W-88W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are farther S in the Gulf of
Honduras, and farther E between the Windward Passage and the E
coast of Jamaica. The eastern half of the Caribbean is drier,
although scattered light showers are seen in some areas in
advance of the tropical wave, which is expected to move through
the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight. In the SW Caribbean,
scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia, Costa
Rica and over water within 30 miles of Costa Rica. The latest
ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows strong trades in the
central Caribbean between Jamaica and NE Colombia.

The tropical wave over the W Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
NW Caribbean through this evening. Strong winds will affect the
Gulf of Honduras at night tonight and Thursday. Fresh to strong
trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean through the
next five days. The next tropical wave will move across the
Lesser Antilles tonight, reach the central basin on Thursday
night and enter the western Caribbean Friday night.

Next update will be issued 22/08/2019