Forecast Discussion



05/20/2018
Forecast valid from 19/05/2018 to 20/05/2018

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw

An upper-level trough extends over the Yucatan Channel and the
northwest Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence on the eastern side
of this trough is supporting numerous showers and scattered
moderate convection N of 13N between 74W and 84W.

The interaction of the upper trough with the nearby E Pacific
monsoon trough over Panama is supporting clusters of moderate
to strong convection S of 13N between 76W and 83W. Broad high
pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support
moderate to fresh tradewinds over the NW and E Caribbean, and
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Light winds
are occurring over the extreme SW Caribbean near the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough. Wave heights of 8 to 10 ft continue to
occur over the S central Caribbean as confirmed by a recent
satellite altimeter pass and current buoy data.

Over the next couple of days, the upper-level trough will
remain in place enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity
over the western Caribbean. The surface ridging pattern over
the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in
place across the basin into early next week.

Next update will be issued 20/05/2018 16:00UTC