Climate Outlook Aruba

ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.

During March 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, with slightly above average SSTs in the eastern portion of the basin. Most models forecast Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere fall, with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions than the statistical models. There is less confidence in the forecasts for the last half of the year, partly because of the so-called "spring barrier," which historically leads to lower model skill beginning in late spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.

Most climate models indicate that rainfall amounts for Aruba should remain normal to a tab above normal for the period April to June 2013. Surface temperature should hover near normal for the period April to June 2013. SST near Aruba should be near normal to a tab above normal (.5 centigrade) for the period April to June 2013.

Long-range forecast from TSR indicates an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2013 is forecast to be about 30% above the long-term (1950-2012) norm but slightly below the recent 2003-2012 10-year norm. There is a 57% likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically. For Atlantic basin hurricane activity referenced to long-term norm values, their forecasts shows: • 15 tropical storms including eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.