Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND) AND JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to very strong El Niņo conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest continued El Niņo conditions through OND and JFM (~100% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: Very strong El Niņo conditions in OND are most often associated with reduced shower and tropical cyclone activity, but exacerbated heat and air humidity, including heat waves. Rainfall deficits tend to grow deeper and more widespread, particularly in the eastern & southern Caribbean and in the Guianas. In JFM, excessive dryness tends to worsen in the latter areas, but shower activity is typically increased in the far northern Caribbean.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH MARCH 2027:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: OND, 45% below normal ; JFM, 60% below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: OND, 70% above normal ; JFM, 80% above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be a below normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.