Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ) AND AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to near average, i.e., ENSO neutral conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest a likely transition into to El Niņo conditions by MJJ (~60-85% confidence), further developing or continuing into ASO (~90% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: El Niņo conditions that develop in summer are often associated with reduced tropical cyclone and reduced shower activity across the Caribbean, but exacerbated heat and air humidity, including heat waves.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH OCTOBER 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 75% normal to below normal ; ASO, 75% normal to below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 80% normal to above normal ; ASO, 90% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be a slightly below normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.