Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific SSTs have recently anomalously warmed less than 0.5°C below average; cold-neutral to marginal La Niņa conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: The models favour a transition to ENSO neutral conditions into AMJ (with 65% confidence). By JAS, ENSO neutral remains the most likely scenario (55% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: Transitioning out of a La Niņa tilts the odds somewhat to drier conditions in AMJ in the islands, i.e. an increased chance for a delayed onset of the wet season, but wetter conditions in the Guianas. Heat during the Caribbean Heat Season post a La Niņa event tends to be attenuated.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2021:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 75% for normal to below normal; JAS 75% for normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 80% for normal to above normal; JAS, 85% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2021:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2021 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.