Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO) AND NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to strong El Niņo conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest continued El Niņo conditions through ASO and NDJ (~100% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: Very strong El Niņo conditions in summer are most often associated with reduced shower activity across the Caribbean, but exacerbated heat and air humidity, including heat waves. From September onwards, tropical cyclone activity tends to be reduced in frequency and rainfall deficits tend to grow and become more widespread, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the Caribbean and in the Guianas. By contrast, in the far northern Caribbean, above-average rainfall is likely.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JANUARY 2027:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: ASO, 70% below normal ; NDJ, 50% below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: ASO, 80% above normal ; NDJ, 60% above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be a below normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.