Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD SEPTEMBER, OKTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON) AND DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY (DJF).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are running just below average, i.e., ENSO cool-neutral conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast ENSO neutral conditions or, possibly, a transition to La Niņa conditions in SON (~40-55% confidence each, resp.), and in DJF (~40-50% confidence each, resp.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: ENSO neutral conditions do not contribute to seasonal forecast skill, whereas a return to La Niņa would increase the odds of a wetter DJF, except in the northern Caribbean.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH FEBRUARY 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: SON, around normal ; DJF, around normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% normal to above normal ; DJF, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a slight above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.