Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON) AND DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY (DJF).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific are just below average; neutral ENSO conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast are unclear whether ENSO neutral (40-50% confidence) or La Niņa (40-60% confid.) conditions will manifest in SON. Large uncertainties remain for DJF with 30-50% and 45-65% chance of neutral and La Niņa conditions, resp.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa tilts the odds to more rainfall and stronger tropical cyclone activity in SON, but tilts the odds to less rainfall in the northern Caribbean in DJF. ENSO neutral offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in the Caribbean.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH FEBRUARY 2022:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% for normal to above normal; DJF 75% for normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% for normal to above normal; DJF, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2021:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2021 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.