Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND) AND JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific SSTs cooled during May from around average to 1°C below average; as such, borderline moderate La Niņa conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: The models slightly favour a La Niņa event to likely manifest by OND (with around 75-80% confidence) and possibly persist through JFM (with around 50-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa tilts the odds to more rainfall, more extreme rainfall and stronger tropical cyclone activity, but tilts the odds to less rainfall in the northern Caribbean in JFM. In addition, temperatures tend to be tempered by the added moisture and more frequent showers in areas that are wetter than usual.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH MARCH 2021:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: OND, 80% for normal to above normal; JFM 90% for normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: OND, 85% for normal to above normal; JFM, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2020:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020 an above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.