Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JULY, AUGUST. SEPTEMBER (JAS) AND OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to moderate El Niņo conditions in recent weeks.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest virtually certainly continued El Niņo conditions through JAS (~100% confidence), and very likely becoming strong or very strong into OND (~90% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: Strengthening El Niņo conditions in summer are often associated with reduced shower activity across the Caribbean, but exacerbated heat and air humidity, including heat waves. From September onwards, tropical cyclone activity tends to be reduced in frequency and rainfall deficits growing and becoming more widespread.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH DECEMBER 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JAS, 70% below normal ; OND, 45% below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JAS, 80% above normal ; OND, 60% above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be a below normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.