Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM) AND APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific SSTs cooled from around average in May to between 1°C and 1.5°C below average; as such, moderate La Niņa conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: The models strongly favour La Niņa to continue into JFM (with around 90-95% confidence) and, more likely than not, a return to ENSO neutral conditions by AMJ (50-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa tilts the odds to more frequent and more intense rainfall, but it also has an attenuating effect on temperatures for most of the region, particularly in the southeastern half of the Caribbean from December to March or April. In the northwest, La Niņa tilts the odds towards a drier and hotter dry season.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JUNE 2021:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JFM, 80% for normal to above normal; AMJ 75% for normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JFM, 75% for normal to below normal; AMJ, 80% for normal to below normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2021:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2021 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.