Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ) AND FEBRUARY, MARCH, APRIL (FMA) A DROUGHT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October with SST anomalies about 0.5°C above average.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models favor ENSO neutral conditions to persist during NDJ (with 65% confidence) and possibly maintain ENSO neutral through FMA (60-70% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ENSO neutral phase offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in any part of the Caribbean. Thus, seasonal forecast skill for the Caribbean region tends to be diminished during ENSO neutral conditions. Chances for equal chances of below, normal, and above conditions are increased.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH APRIL 2020:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% normal to below normal; FMA, around normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal; FMA, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2019:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.