Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to 0.5°C below average, i.e., fading borderline La Niņa conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest a likely transition into to ENSO neutral conditions by AMJ (~55-85% confidence) and El Niņo conditions by JAS (~75% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: El Niņo conditions that develop in summer are often associated with reduced tropical cyclone and heavy shower activity across the Caribbean, as well as exacerbated heat and humidity, including heat waves.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 80% normal to below normal ; JAS, 80% normal to below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 75% normal to above normal ; JAS, 90% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be an around normal hurricane season. Forcast skill at this time is very low.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.