Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA) AND SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have warmed to weak El Niņo conditions in recent weeks.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest very likely continued El Niņo conditions by JJA (>90% confidence), likely further strengthening into a strong El Niņo into SON (~60% confidence.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: Strengthening El Niņo conditions in summer are often associated with reduced tropical cyclone and reduced shower activity across the Caribbean, but exacerbated heat and air humidity, including heat waves.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH NOVEMBER 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JJA, 60% below normal ; SON, 50% below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JJA, 50% above normal ; SON, 50% above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2026:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be a below normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.