Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND) AND JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM)

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) have increased to 0-0.5°C above average, meaning warm neutral ENSO conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO conditions to evolve into a weak or moderate El Niņo (with 60-70% and 65-75% confidence for OND and JFM, respectively).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: An El Niņo state will tend to tilt the odds to drier conditions with less shower activity, except in JFM in the Bahamas, Cayman and Cuba, where drier conditions become more likely. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niņo signals.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH MARCH 2019:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: OND, 70% normal to below normal; JFM, 70% for normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: OND, 80% for normal to above normal; JFM, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2018:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 a slightly below normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.