Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: A strong El Niņo event peaked in December and anomalous cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific is ongoing, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) around 1.0°C above average.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models indicate further cooling to ENSO neutral conditions in AMJ (~70-80% confidence) and La Niņa conditions by JAS (~60-75% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: A transition out of El Niņo is often associated with increased chances of heavy showers and higher rainfall totals in April, as well as higher air temperatures. The appearance of La Niņa conditions in summer tends to increase tropical cyclone activity in the peak and second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2024:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 80% normal to above normal ; JAS, 85% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 95% normal to above normal ; JAS, 90% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2024:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be an above-normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.